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June 29 2012

Top Stories: June 25-29, 2012

Here's a look at the top stories published across O'Reilly sites this week.

William Gibson got some of it right
"Neuromancer," written 28 years ago, predicted a technological wonderland we're still waiting for. But its corporate dystopia is already here.

Why learn C?
"Head First C" co-author David Griffith discusses C's continued popularity and why C and Arduino work well together.

"Lightweight" DRM isn't the answer
In this open letter to the IDPF's Executive Director, Bill McCoy, O'Reilly GM & Publisher Joe Wikert explains why a DRM-free approach is far better than any "lightweight" DRM option.

Ten years of Foo Camp
We curate topic areas and interesting people, but Foo Camp is designed to be an idea collider. It's an intentional serendipity engine that works the seams in between.

Predictive data analytics is saving lives and taxpayer dollars in New York City
A predictive data analytics team in the Mayor's Office of New York City is finding patterns in regulatory data that can then be applied to law, health and better allocation of taxpayer resources.

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July 15 2011

Why don't they get it?

Predicting the development and adoption of new technology is difficult, with problems ranging from focusing too deeply on detailed technical features, to being swept along by an emotional gut feeling that may be unique to you.

When our forecasts don't pan out, we can feel great frustration with the people in the market who we see as either extremely cynical, irrational or stupid. Sometimes we just plain don't understand them.

In the mid 1990s I worked for a research company. At one point I produced forecasts of UK broadband penetration that turned out to be about 10 years too aggressive. We had totally underestimated the reluctance of BT to let go of potential ISDN revenues and invest in ADSL. The long-term technical call was correct, but the timing was naïve. I had understood the technology, but not the people.

Fast-forward 15 years and a tweet from Tim O'Reilly touched a nerve:

Sometimes copyright-protected industries are so far out of line, and I wonder why government doesn't see it #overreachless than a minute ago via Seesmic Desktop Favorite Retweet Reply

The piece he linked was highlighting television broadcasters' efforts to get the government involved in what are currently purely commercial negotiations between program producers and broadcasters. Rather than negotiate payments for rights, some broadcasters are asking the government to require program makers to grant these rights through new legislation.

You can see why broadcasters would want this, but how could a government begin to think this would be a good idea all-in-all for the economy?

To quote the distinguished Princeton psychologist and economist Daniel Kahneman, I believe it's because human beings are "endlessly complicated and interesting." Rather than take the knee-jerk response that politicians must just be in the pocket of big media, I'm going to look at how some aspects of human behavior make this kind of highly damaging legislation more likely.

We need only assume that politicians are people who are "against unemployment" and "against crime."

Fear of loss is much stronger than desire for gain

Kahneman's groundbreaking research with Amos Tversky on loss aversion showed that the fear of losing something generally (and strongly) outweighs the desire to acquire it.

So when an established industry like broadcasting cries out that there will be massive job losses if they don't get legislative support, then politicians' fear of loss will often greatly outweigh any desire to loosen or enact legislation to encourage innovation and new job creation.

If the broadcasters are able to convince the government that what was once considered fair use of material should really be seen as criminal copyright infringement, then they might also be able to push the "against crime" button.

Web 2.0 Summit, being held October 17-19 in San Francisco, will examine "The Data Frame" — focusing on the impact of data in today's networked economy.

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A bird in the hand

Enacting heavy-handed legislation to support old, lumbering businesses can positively damage the prospects of new businesses and future job creation.

As investors, we learn through discounted cashflow analysis how to compare a dollar now with a dollar next year. We can apply this to compare a job now with a job in the future. Unfortunately, humans are often poor at this and undervalue future events compared to immediate circumstances (so-called hyperbolic discounting). In our broadcast media case, a perceived crime now (e.g. file sharing) can seem to totally outweigh the value of possible future job creation.

Political bandwidth is very narrow

To discuss or influence government policy we face a massive bandwidth problem, as politicians need to be able to state their position as crisp soundbites.

Allied to this is the fact that politically-engaged people tend to feel the urge to pick a side or risk being portrayed as spineless ditherers. Having picked a side, another psychological bias (confirmation bias) can kick in, leading to a tendency to fit evidence to their current viewpoint. Broadcast legislation is a walk in the park compared to climate change legislation, however. And I'll leave evolution denial to The Onion ...

In our media example, there are two sides to copyright (and also patent) law:

  1. Encouragement of innovation and creativity
  2. Punishment of criminal infringers

Our broadcasters are pushing hard to make the first point disappear off the radar, and ensure that copyright is perceived solely as an open-and-shut "protection of property" issue, similar to housebreaking or auto theft.

Unless the proponents of innovation can reclaim this ground, we will see that there is only room for the simplest of soundbites. They will eventually lead to works of art like the Protect IP Act.

So how do you combine an understanding of people and technologies?

The world is complex. Even the most sophisticated attempt to model "things" has led to a realization that this can only take us so far, and that we must put people's behavior at the center of our models.

If you doubt this, ask Google what they are up to with Google+.

I'm not a psychologist — I have an iPhone app development business and a background in media and business strategy. However, I would strongly recommend that anyone discussing or commenting on new technology get to know as many of the quirks and biases of human behavior as they can, as you're modeling people first and technology second.

I'm sure you've come across Freakonomics, but if you really want to swallow up the rest of the day I can recommend the Wikipedia list of cognitive biases, which has more than 100 listed reasons why people don't behave like technology.

So, next time you find yourself wondering why elegant and simple logical assumptions have once again been poleaxed by "some bunch of [insert your favorite insult here]," you'll probably find that some, if not all, of these cognitive effects are at play somewhere in the model.


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March 03 2011

The abandonment of technology

Right now the Space Shuttle Discovery is in orbit for the last time, and docked with the International Space Station (ISS). On its return to Earth the orbiter will be decommissioned and displayed in the Smithsonian's National Air and Space Museum. Just two more shuttle flights, Endeavour in mid-April, and Atlantis in late-June, are scheduled before the shuttle program is brought to and end.

Tracy Caldwell Dyson in the Cupola module of the International Space Station
Tracy Caldwell Dyson in the Cupola module of the International Space Station observing the Earth below during Expedition 24 in 2010. (Credit: Expedition 24, NASA)

Toward the end of last year I came across an interesting post about the abandonment of technology by Cameron Locke. A couple of months later on I read an article by Kyle Munkittrick who argues that the future is behind us, or at least that our current visions of the future are outdated compared the current technology:

The year is 2010. America has been at war for the first decade of the 21st century and is recovering from the largest recession since the Great Depression. Air travel security uses full-body X-rays to detect weapons and bombs. The president, who is African-American, uses a wireless phone, which he keeps in his pocket, to communicate with his aides and cabinet members from anywhere in the world ... Video games can be controlled with nothing but gestures, voice commands and body movement. In the news, a rogue Australian cyberterrorist is wanted by world's largest governments and corporations for leaking secret information over the world wide web; spaceflight has been privatized by two major companies, Virgin Galactic and SpaceX.

I've been thinking about these two articles ever since, and Discovery's last flight brought these thoughts to the front of my mind. On the face of things the two posts espouse very different view points, however the underlying line of argument in both is very similar.

The future is already here and we may be standing at a crucial decision point in our history. Forces are pulling us in both directions. On one hand the rate of technological progress is clearly accelerating, on the other, the resources we have on hand to push that progress are diminishing at an ever-increasing rate. In a world of declining resources, and increasingly unreliable energy supply, you have to wonder whether our current deep economic recession is a sign of things to come. Will the next few decades be a time of economic contraction and an overall lower standard of living?

Big problems, unaddressed

At the 2008 Web 2.0 Expo, Tim O'Reilly argued that there are still big problems to solve and he asked people to go after the big, hard, problems.

And what are the best and the brightest working on? You have to ask yourself, are we working on the right things?

I think Tim was right, and I don't think much has changed in the last couple of years. I'm worried that we're chasing the wrong goals, we're not yet going after the big, hard, problems that Tim was talking about. Solving them might make all the difference.

While not all big problems are related to the space program by any means, the successful first launch of SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket last December has given me some hope that some of our best and brightest aren't just throwing sheep at one another or selling plush toys.

Despite this, I see signs of a growth in pseudo-science, and an inability of even the educated middle classes to be able to tell the difference between it and more trustworthy scientific undertakings. There is also a worrying smugness, almost pride, among many people that they "just don't understand computers." While some of us are pushing the boundaries, it appears we may be leaving others behind.

We abandoned the moon, then faster flight. What's next?

The fastest westbound trans-atlantic flight from London Heathrow to New York JFK was on the 7th of February 1996, by a BA Concorde. It made the journey in just under 3 hours. Depending on conditions, the flight typically takes between 7 and 8 hours on a normal airplane. As a regular on the LHR to SFO and LAX routes, I spend a lot of time unemployed over Greenland. I do sometimes wish it was otherwise.

A few weeks ago I watched an Airbus A380 taxi toward take-off at Heathrow, and I felt a deep sense of shame that as a species we'd traded a thing of aeronautical beauty for this lumbering giant. Despite the obvious technical achievement, it feels like a step backwards.

I'm young enough, if only just, that I don't remember the Moon landings. However when I was a child my father told me about how, as a younger man, he had avidly watched the broadcast of the Moon landings, and I have a friend whose father was in Mission Control with a much closer view. In the same way I can tell my son that we once were able to cross the Atlantic in just 3 hours, and that once it was possible to arrive in New York before you left London. I do wonder if things go the wrong way — and we enter an age of declining possibilities and narrowing horizons — whether he'll believe me.

December 15 2010

My top 5 predictions for CIOs in 2011

We are living in amazing times. Technology is changing the way we work and play at a considerable pace and there is no letup in sight. Rather, the change we anticipate ahead will be greater and more profound than anything that has come before. If you, like me, are lucky enough to be part of implementing that change then you'll likely agree that we are extra fortunate.

To me, being a CIO in the early part of the 21st century couldn't be further from being in "just a job." If you're doing it right and having fun while you're doing it, you and your team can be inventors of the future. And that's really important and interesting work.

As we look to 2011, the to-do list and choices for CIOs are getting longer and more complex. The pace of change is adding a level of uncertainty that doesn't make any specific path clear. Knowing this, as most of us do, is not particularly helpful. But that's not the point to focus on: the enlightened CIO must help go after the most valuable projects and be a trusted adviser to those who commit dollars to organizational goals.

It's in this context that I present my top 5 predictions for CIOs in 2011. I've pondered whether they should be characterized as predictions. Regardless of what we call them, these areas will be featured on most CIO agendas in the year ahead. Think of them as unavoidable big ticket items that will consume considerable discussion and may be deserving of a deliberate strategy.

1. Cloud computing enters the mainstream

Okay, so one doesn't need to be a soothsayer to know that cloud computing is at a point of inflection. Emerging from a period of hype and niche investment, cloud computing is positioning as a transformative and central technology in the arsenal of enablers of value.

Worthy of particular note, with mobile increasingly at the center of our computing future, a strategy for the mobile cloud will be an essential subset of this space.

I've said it before, if the CIO is not driving the agenda on cloud in 2011, there are many in the C-suite who will be. This is because cloud computing provides solutions for reducing cost, simplifying and optimizing infrastructure, and shifting the role of the CIO from back-office manager to enabler of business opportunity.

The risk is no longer the cloud. The risk is not having the cloud as a priority in your strategy.

2. Real business intelligence

I have a term for business intelligence that I prefer and I believe conveys a more urgent sense of its value: I call it unleashing data. Somewhere on some system in your organization lie answers and patterns in data that could be worth millions of dollars. In an era where we create more data every two days than was created from the start of recorded history to 2003 (apparently that's about five exabytes of data), to say data is underutilized is a gross understatement.

Now, more than ever, we have tools to mine organizational data -- whether structured or unstructured -- and unleash its enormous value. What strikes me about business intelligence is that the CIO doesn't have to create anything new; it's about using what already exists.

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3. The cost and value of technology

A notable manifestation of our recession recovery is the absence of rigorous business investment. Put another way, businesses have been shell-shocked into hoarding their profits at the cost of spending on necessary technology maintenance and new systems. Rather, the modus operandi is conservative spending and trying to get more technology value with less cost. CIOs are feeling it.

The year ahead will likely continue this trend as the economy remains unstable and uncertain. It's not the end of the world for CIOs, but it does mean that more work must be applied to developing watertight business cases and for increasing the innovative use of technology. For many CIOs, this trend will require necessary business skills that will be challenging. Break open that old college business textbook. You might need it.

4. Integrating social into the enterprise

While I don't think that integrating social computing deep into existing systems will hit an inflection point in 2011, nonetheless I believe this will be the year where the subject gets increasing attention both in the CIO discourse and in the emergence of new supporting technology.

The business advantages of social capabilities such as internal crowdsourcing, collaborative virtual spaces, video-on-the-desktop, social network analysis, creating serendipity, and consensus building are being gradually proven out on an ad hoc basis. The future will demand that a deliberate and rigorous plan be applied to it. The time to begin strategizing on a path forward begins now.

5. Temporary staffing

If you're an IT contractor, 2011 will likely continue to be a good year for you. Closely aligned with prediction No. 3, CIOs are increasingly reluctant to fill openings with full-time employees. Loath to risk further layoffs in the future, they continue to be highly conservative about growing the ranks. Market confidence will need to be restored before we see a sizeable shift to full-time employee hiring in the IT sector.

As a result, CIOs will be managing more hybrid-staffed organizations. These organizations will constitute full-time employees, contractors, and outsourcing. While not radically different from many IT organizations today, what makes 2011 different is the uncertainty around the extent and duration of the contractor requirements. Will it be permanent? What effects will it have on institutional knowledge, loyalty, and existing staff?

You may agree or disagree with my predictions and you may believe I left something big out. I'm confident that's true. So I'd like to hear from you. Add your comment below if you think there is another prediction that every CIO must be aware of for 2011.

As I did in 2010, I'll revisit these in late in 2011 and make an assessment of how they fared as the top ticket items for the CIO during the year.


December 08 2010

Taking stock of my 2010 tech predictions

Writing predictions is always fun because if you get one right it makes you look like you have extraordinary psychic skills. And if you get it wrong, well, so what? How could you really know?

On a more serious note, publishing predictions can be valuable content if they are formed by using unique insights to aggregate qualitative and quantitative observations, such as interviews with industry leaders or analyzing trend data.

In January 2010, I published a list of my technology predictions for the year ahead. I've been approached by many of you to revisit those predictions and state a verdict on each. While I hit a few right on, I certainly over-estimated the rate of change. In addition, like many of us who make predictions, we're often caught off guard by the introduction of an unanticipated disruptor (read: iPad!). But that's what makes our industry fun. Making technology predictions is somewhat of an oxymoron: innovation is by nature unpredictable.

So here are my top 10 technology predictions for 2010 and the assessment of how things actually turned out:

1. Software-as-a-Service (SaaS)

Prediction: 2010 will be a big year for providers of software as a service (SaaS). The obvious big names in this space will release new offerings to compete with popular desktop applications.

Verdict: This was a slam dunk, although admittedly one of the easier predictions. Gartner predicts that the SaaS market will have grown an outstanding 14 percent in 2010.

2. Netbooks

Prediction: This popular form-factor will have outstanding sales and may even surpass laptop sales by year-end. Given its remarkable low-cost, we will likely see more offerings that make available free netbooks.

Verdict: Wrong. Netbook sales in 2010 took a nose-dive. After outstanding sales in 2009, interest waned and the market crashed. Some blamed the introduction of the iPad, although many have argued that the audiences aren't necessarily the same. However, there is some agreement that the introduction of the iPad and the tablet format in general did impact the overall sales of portable computers as a broader category.

3. Cloud services

Prediction: An obvious growth area in 2010; we will see new and expanded services from all the usual suspects. Expect major announcements from large businesses and government agencies choosing to move some of their core applications and data to the cloud.

Verdict: Correct. An easy call. Major adoption and spending continues. This week alone the General Services Administration announced it is moving all 15,000 of its employees to Gmail and Google Apps. The continued expanded use of the cloud is anticipated to grow in leaps and bounds in the years ahead.

4. Mobile money

Prediction: By late 2010, paying for products and services via a mobile device such as a cellphone will begin to emerge in the mainstream U.S. Multiple flavors will be available including custom applications and text messaging.

Verdict: While we see progress in this area, I was too optimistic on where we would be by the end of the year. There is no doubt that there is considerable innovation taking place, but we are still a distance from seeing broad adoption of mobile money in the U.S. I do continue to believe strongly that this will be a major area of growth in the years ahead.

5. Free software

Prediction: If current trends continue, it's quite possible that all software will be available in a form of free, but 2010 will be the first year that this trend reaches a point of inflection. A combination of enterprise-class open source, freemium, freeware, ad-supported, and alternate revenue-model software will have lasting and destructive impact on the notion of license-paid software.

Verdict: Mixed. The big winner in 2010 was open source. We continue to see high adoption rates in the enterprise from products such as WordPress and Ubuntu (implementation and maintenance costs assumed). Worth watching are those organizations that are permitting staff to bring their own home computers to work that in effect offloads enterprise software costs to the employee.

6. Harvesting the social graph and Web-Squared

Prediction: 2010 will see the introduction of the first widely available and easily usable products for better understanding the mass of unstructured data being accumulated across public and private clouds. The emergence of intelligent solutions to interpret massive related and un-related data in order to create forecasts and identify trends will help people make more sense of the world and see previously hidden signals.

Verdict: Some momentum building here, but no critical mass. A notable player, Hadoop has seen considerable growth over the year. But easy-to-use, mass-adopted applications are still a distance away.

7. More video

Prediction: Continued investment in video infrastructures will see greater use in work and non-work environments. It will be more common (but still not ubiquitous) to have video conversations with colleagues and external parties such as customers and suppliers.

Verdict: Notwithstanding the fascinating war-of-words this year between Adobe and Apple on the strategy to support video on devices, this was an outstanding year for continued broad adoption of video. According to a survey conducted by LifeSize, 51 percent of mid-sized enterprises polled use video conferencing and the majority of those that don't are planning to use it.

8. Green IT

Prediction: This may be an inconsistent area of investment as continued tight budgets and more immediate costs (e.g. migration to updated operating systems) distract from major green initiatives. However, going into 2011 and beyond, broad adoption of virtualization and further movement toward hosting in the cloud may help organizations lower their data center carbon footprint.

Verdict: Mixed. As I predicted, the focus on tightening costs for many CIOs forced some distraction from this subject, although greater use of cloud computing, broader recognition and pursuit of LEED certification, and better system efficiencies in general remained consistent themes.

9. Mobile Location-based services (LBS) and augmented reality (AR)

Prediction: Expect to see an extraordinary number of start-ups and existing technology companies offering mobile LBS-related services. Proximity-based solutions will become more common. Mobile devices will begin to offer compelling overlay data for the real world that help people with existing and new activities. Lots of noise and confusion will ensue as both consumers and providers try to figure out acceptable services. For example: How will people respond when they stroll through a mall and are bombarded with text messages from different retail stores?

Verdict: Correct. Both LBS and AR continue to be exciting and innovative technologies that are growing in leaps and bounds. The exceptional successes of both FourSquare and Gowalla and the use of places in both Facebook and Twitter are indicative of consumer interest.

10. Social spaghetti integration

Prediction: More social features will begin to show up in enterprise resource planning (ERP) apps. New and increased support for ERP solutions that, for example, integrate social networking, will see a further blurring of the lines between work and non-work applications and activities.

Verdict: Mixed. With two major standouts: Salesforce Chatter and Facebook integration, this space is seeing growing interest, but considerable lack of coordination and direction. At the Web 2 Summit in San Francisco in November, Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook, went to great lengths to suggest that social is coming to all applications over the next few years. This will be a fascinating area to watch and participate in.

Next week I will publish my top 5 predictions for CIOs in 2011.


December 15 2009

Government 2.0: Five Predictions for 2010-12

Under no pressure from anyone, I’ve forced this obligatory “end of year predictions” post upon myself. People always ask me where I think Government 2.0 is going anyway, I may as well get some writing mileage out of it, right? So, here are some non-exhaustive, somewhat creative, and entirely debatable trends and ideas that I foresee taking shape in the next three years or so. Why the next three years? Well, it's hard to predict what will happen within a year - there are too many strange short-term factors, like natural disasters and Congressional behavior (but I repeat myself). Plus, the next three years is the remainder of Obama's current term in office, so these are things we can expect to see either before his second term, or before the new President's first term. So, that said, here are my five predictions for 2010-12:

Local governments as experiments - Increasingly some of the most innovative ideas are being independently developed in small communities. For example, the tiny city of Manor, TX has launched Manor Labs to improve services. Citizens sign up and suggest ideas for local services like law enforcement, and their ideas are ranked by the community. Good suggestions are rewarded with “Innobucks” that can be redeemed for prizes. Innovative thinking plus government-citizen interactions plus individual incentives can result in big wins for everyone involved. How can the Federal government best keep track of local innovation, and how can everyone best keep track of Government 2.0 news in general? Where's the TechCrunch of Gov 2.0?

The rise of Citizen 2.0 - Just as governments are adopting new media communications, cloud computing mentalities, and social networking skills, so are the citizens they represent. The implication is that if citizens want a website that mashes up environmental and tourist data, or desire open chat and dating platforms for soldiers stationed overseas, or find out what their Member of Congress does every minute of the day, they might just find a way to do it themselves. Early examples like showed that it was possible, but with people flocking to smart phones, niche social networks, and unconferences, how long will it be before the citizens are beating the government at its own game? (I think that a lot of what we call Government 2.0 is in actuality Citizen 2.0...)

Mobile devices as primary devices - Most discussion I hear about everything from social media to cybersecurity concentrates on desktop computers plugged into a wall. Sure, those are important, and the average government-issued BlackBerry is a little out of date. But soon those mobile devices will be replaced and upgraded, and employees will increasingly demand advanced capabilities like access to social networks like LinkedIn and Facebook, embedded cameras, and customized applications (“apps”) for news and other functions. What are the implications for government when an iPhone becomes more powerful than a Dell desktop running all the Microsoft that money can buy?

Ubiquitous crude video content - High production value for Internet-only video is overrated. Sometimes, if a video targets a highly specific niche audience, great content is good enough. A small company named Demand Media, valued at $1 billion, creates thousands of videos a day and posts them on YouTube and other places - more than many other “media companies” combined. Their business model involves a specific algorithm that predicts highly specific questions people are likely to ask - “What’s the best color to repaint a red Camaro?” - and then assigns freelancers to film crude videos as appropriate. People have a lot of questions about their government - could they in part be answered using Demand Media's somewhat controversial techniques? I've written about this in a post about "proactive social media."

Always on-the-record - When you combine the ideas above (local innovation + citizen 2.0 + mobile as primary + crude content) a fifth prediction emerges. I think that more and more, politicians and government officials will always be on-the-record. By this I mean that the multiplication of inquisitive citizens with mobile devices, wi-fi, and social networking know-how implies that everything from local government hearings to Senators' travel habits can easily be documented, published, and shared. Imagine if you had a group of 20 "health care legislation enthusiasts" - what if each of them took one business day a month to follow (stalk?) members of (say) the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee around? In this episode of The Right Idea, I discuss this notion of always-on-the-record with some political experts. Think "George Allen's macaca meets Code Pink."

In the way of an open-ended conclusion, let me quote Clay Johnson, Director of Sunlight Labs in Washington, DC: "What if there was as much data about John Barrow (D-GA) as there was about Manny Ramirez (LF-Dodgers). There are 750 players in Major League Baseball, and only 535 Members of Congress. Most of the data [about government] exists and what doesn't we need to demand. The answer to healthy democracy lies not in rhetoric, but in our data." (from Seth Godin's new e-book, What Matters Now, p. 35)

Government data doesn't get me hot and bothered, but Clay's writing made me ask: Why exactly do we collect, analyze, and share more data on baseball than on our own government? To some degree, it's a combination of interest and ease. Bonus prediction, an easy one: It will be much easier to collect, analyze, and share government information in 2010-12 than it was in 2009. And we only need about one percent of citizens to be interested for something big to happen.

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