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May 28 2010

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The Geopolitical Implications of the Financial Crisis with keynote address by Paul Krugman

May 05 2010

02mydafsoup-01

STIGLITZ: Can the Euro be Saved?

It is not too late for the EU to implement the institutional reforms needed to make the euro work, and thus live up to the ideals, based on solidarity, that underlay the common currency's creation. But if Europe cannot do so, then perhaps it is better to admit failure and move on than to extract a high price in unemployment and human suffering in the name of a flawed economic model.

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[...]

Moreover, Europe has no way of helping those countries facing severe problems. Consider Spain, which has an unemployment rate of 20% – and more than 40% among young people. It had a fiscal surplus before the crisis; after the crisis, its deficit increased to more than 11% of GDP. But, under European Union rules, Spain must now cut its spending, which will likely exacerbate unemployment. As its economy slows, the improvement in its fiscal position may be minimal.

Some hoped that the Greek tragedy would convince policymakers that the euro cannot succeed without greater cooperation (including fiscal assistance). But Germany (and its Constitutional Court), partly following popular opinion, has opposed giving Greece the help that it needs.

To many, both in and outside of Greece, this stance was peculiar: billions had been spent saving big banks, but evidently saving a country of eleven million people was taboo! It was not even clear that the help Greece needed should be labeled a bailout: while the funds given to financial institutions like AIG were unlikely to be recouped, a loan to Greece at a reasonable interest rate would likely be repaid. [...]


[...] Germany (like China) views its high savings and export prowess as virtues, not vices. But John Maynard Keynes pointed out that surpluses lead to weak global aggregate demand – countries running surpluses exert a “negative externality” on their trading partners. Indeed, Keynes believed that it was surplus countries, far more than deficit countries, that posed a threat to global prosperity; he went so far as to recommend a tax on surplus countries. [...]

There is a second solution: the exit of Germany from the eurozone or the division of the eurozone into two sub-regions. The euro was an interesting experiment, but, like the almost-forgotten exchange-rate mechanism (ERM) that preceded it and fell apart when speculators attacked the British pound in 1992, it lacks the institutional support required to make it work. [...]

April 28 2010

Griechenland-Rettungsplan: Geschäftige Ruhe vor dem Sturm | Frankfurter Rundschau - Wirtschaft | Karl Doemens und Werner Balsen 20100428

[...] Erst "Madame Non", nun eine Zusage "unter Voraussetzungen" - es ist diese Taktiererei, die Merkel Kritik im Ausland und bei der Opposition einbringt. "Die Herabstufung der Kreditwürdigkeit auf Ramschstatus ist eine Anklage gegen Angela Merkels Politik der Ausflüchte", wettert der ehemalige dänische Ministerpräsident Poul Nyrup Rasmussen. Merkel habe die Innenpolitik über die europäische Solidarität gestellt. Unbestreitbar daran ist, dass Merkel die Griechenland-Krise unmittelbar vor den nordrhein-westfälischen Landtagswahlen ungelegen kommt. Mehr als 65 Prozent der Deutschen lehnen nach einer Allensbach-Umfrage Hilfen für die Hellenen ab. Seit Tagen schürt die Bild-Zeitung mit dicken Überschriften die "Angst um unser Geld". [...]

Griechenland-Rettungsplan: Geschäftige Ruhe vor dem Sturm | Frankfurter Rundschau - Wirtschaft | Karl Doemens und Werner Balsen 20100428

[...] Erst "Madame Non", nun eine Zusage "unter Voraussetzungen" - es ist diese Taktiererei, die Merkel Kritik im Ausland und bei der Opposition einbringt. "Die Herabstufung der Kreditwürdigkeit auf Ramschstatus ist eine Anklage gegen Angela Merkels Politik der Ausflüchte", wettert der ehemalige dänische Ministerpräsident Poul Nyrup Rasmussen. Merkel habe die Innenpolitik über die europäische Solidarität gestellt. Unbestreitbar daran ist, dass Merkel die Griechenland-Krise unmittelbar vor den nordrhein-westfälischen Landtagswahlen ungelegen kommt. Mehr als 65 Prozent der Deutschen lehnen nach einer Allensbach-Umfrage Hilfen für die Hellenen ab. Seit Tagen schürt die Bild-Zeitung mit dicken Überschriften die "Angst um unser Geld". [...]

March 31 2010

Why Germany cannot be a model for the eurozone - ft.com 20100330 by martin.wolf@ft.com

[...] [T]he prospect for the “improved economic co-ordination” mentioned in the Council statement is nil. Worse, Germany does wish to see a sharp move by its partners towards smaller fiscal deficits. The eurozone, the world’s second largest economy, would then be on its way to being a big Germany, with chronically weak internal demand. Germany and other similar economies might find a way out through increased exports to emerging countries. For its structurally weaker partners – especially those burdened by uncompetitive costs – the result would be years of stagnation, at best. Is this to be the vaunted “stability”? [...] [T]he eurozone will not work as Germany wishes. As I have argued previously, the eurozone can become Germanic only by exporting huge excess supply or pushing large parts of the eurozone economy into prolonged slump, or, more likely, both. Germany could be Germany because others were not. If the eurozone itself became Germany, I cannot see how it would work. [...]
Reposted by02myEcon-01 02myEcon-01

1.489 milliards d'euros de dette publique

La dette française s’est établie, fin 2009, à 1.489 milliards d’euros, a indiqué l’Insee. Elle a ainsi atteint 77,6% du produit intérieur brut (PIB) en 2009, contre 67,5% sur l’année 2008. Elle s’est appréciée de 31,7 milliards d’euros sur le quatrième trimestre de 2009.
Le déficit public, lui, s’élève à 7,5% du PIB, soit un chiffre moins mauvais qu’attendu, mais toutefois bien supérieur à la limite de 3% imposée par les critères européens du traité de Maastricht. A noter, le déficit des seules administrations locales (Régions, départements, communes…) s’est réduit, passant de 8,7 milliards d’euros en 2008 à 5,6 milliards en 2009.
Le déficit de l’Etat s’est creusé, lui, de 62,1 milliards, à 117,6 milliards. Celui de la Sécurité sociale explose à 25 milliards (+24,1 milliards).

Reposted fromScheiro Scheiro
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