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April 06 2014

"The hunt for the missing Malaysia Airlines plane has shifted below the surface, with the "towed pinger locator" deployed on Friday to search for the black box before its batteries expire."

I wish them luck with that. From experience on the SAA295 'Helderberg' job I know that they've got a sub-minimal chance of finding that pinger in the next week or two. This wreck will be found acoustically, that's almost for sure, but it'll be by low frequency (100kHz or better) side-scan sonar --- or perhaps by pp-magnetometer... Almost certainly not by a couple of pinger locators and most certainly not by a fleet of photogenic aeroplanes sent on a photo-opportunity in a show-biz charade to assuage the PR efforts of three politicians and to satiate half a hundred rolling-news networks on telly.

A comparison with the Helderberg job is quite informative, mostly for its differences rather than its similarities. The water depth was broadly similar, circa four and a half Klicks if I remember correctly in that case. We never found the pinger(s). Not acoustically, anyway. After the thirty days plus ten percent we gave up dragging pinger locators around the hydrospace of the survey ground. We had a list of the co-ords of hundreds of false positives because we were under orders from bozos ashore to crank the receiver gain up the the max, but nothing of any use.

We did eventually find the CVR, replete with dead pinger, but that was more or less by accident when picking up a piece of wreckage with which it was entangled. That thing of quasi-accidental discovery of the recorders is actually quite common. Same thing happened with Valujet in the swamp and yet again with TWA800. In both of those cases the {insert colo(u)r here} boxes were found when someone trod on them. We never did find the SAA295 FDR, despite the fact that it had been affixed to the aircraft immediately adjacent to the CVR. Hell, they never found the recorders from the two Boeings in lower Manhattan -- and that was a case where they knew to within ten metres or better the very exact three dimensional co-ordinates of the impact points and they had reps from Boeing subbies searching every scoopful of debris for the thick end of a year.

We had the same problem, in the case of SAA295, of people ashore repeatedly switching the target area(s) as is being experienced by the poor sods at the sharp end of the MH370 search. We dreaded the hour after the end of the morning 'prayer meeting' conference calls because we knew that someone ashore would get his pencil out and make up a new box, usually in a place which could not be reconciled with any of the previous ones. Out of earshot of the shadowy civilian guy from Virginia who was leading the search from below and behind, we used to refer to those boxes as "your target for tonight".

Same thing is happening with MH370.

If such a bet were enforceable, and if I could find any mugs foolish enough to be a counter-party to the bet, I'd happily and profitably give odds of 100:1 against them finding the pinger with a pinger locator. They've got, at most, a couple of weeks, with only a couple of ships, neither of which (incredibly), is simultaneously towing a 100 kHz side-scan sonar.

Even with vane depressors and drag reducing devices such as Hairy Fairy vortex interruptors on the lower quarter of the tow-cable, they'll be lucky to make much more than three or four knots of waterspeed. The end of line turnarounds are an absolute bitch. In 87/88 we quit after doing a thousand square miles and we had the twin advantages of knowing quite accurately where the aircraft stoofed in and we had our tools in the water (titter ye not in the cheap seats!) at the locus within a week of the crash. These poor sods have none of those advantages and they are being led by an Air Chief Marshal who has reversed seamanship and placed the surface ships at the disposal and in the service of the air fleet instead of the other way around.

This evening, by any timezone, we enter the fourth week of the search and they haven't found so much as a satay stick from that aeroplane. If anybody has learned anything from the AF447 fiasco, then surely they must have learned that becoming fixated on theoretical back calculations of the impact point from subsequently discovered patches of identified and confirmed flotsam can lead to unwise people becoming target fixated on wrong locations.

With Helderberg we had two major advantages. One was that the flight deck crew had been aviating;navigating;communicating right up until very few (less than five) minutes before impact and had been giving copious amounts of positional and intention information to ATC. Very different to MH370. The other massive advantage we had was that the first confirmed patch of flotsam from the wreck was found, and its co-ordinates measured, just 12 hours after impact. The second patch was located just 12 hours after that.

Given the non-linearity of the mathematics of oceanic dispersal, any positional information from that elusive MAS satay stick, even if found during the fourth rather than fifth week, is likely to confuse rather than clarify the impact location. It'll tell you that the wreck lies in the SouthEastern quadrant of the Indian Ocean and not at some fairytale Dawson Field in one of the 'stans, but we pretty much know that anyway.

The ugly truth, quite certainly unpalatable to the two prime ministers and 230 sets of bereaved relatives, is that the best chance of finding the wreckage and a few fragments of human remains lies in a very long hard slog with side-scan sonar. It's a search which is likely to take very large fractions of a year or, more likely, multiple years. Enthusiasm for funding such a prolonged and open-ended search will surely dry up, as it always does, when the bills start flowing in and become overdue for payment.
Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost - Page 462 - PPRuNe Forums 2014-04-04
Reposted bymofo mofo
Chronus says:
"NBC News Reports: Malaysia’s prime minister says the missing plane was airborne for seven hours and only could have been taken down with someone at the controls.

We all know this has become a criminal investigation, where the passangers are no longer under investigation, but the crew are.

Given the two media announcements above one would be led to conclude that the prime suspects are the crew.

So it seems pointless at this juncture to hypothesise on fire and technical mulfunction.

The question must be, on what basis of factual or circumstantial evidence or a combination of both, did the Malaysian authorities decide to pursue this as a criminal investigation."


Who knows - maybe they feel the need to be seen to be doing something? Though fair enough to investigate what you can from what little you have when there is precious little else available to you. The term criminal investigation probably means no more that that side of it is a police one and their motives to be seen to "solve" this could be questioned by some.

Not only is it pointless to hypothesise on fire and technical malfunction, it is pointless to hypothesise on anything. We, the public, are unaware of what is known, press/media reports are high on drama but short on concrete facts. This is a very unprecedented event and until the investigators have some data no-one can know what set of unusual circumstances prevailed on that flight. Why the need of some to put labels on at this stage? To be able to say "I knew all along"?

I am most uncomfortable with what, to me at least, appears to be a suggestion before any real evidence is available that the crew are under criminal investigation. At this stage surely ALL investigation is routine and fact finding.
Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost - Page 473 - PPRuNe Forums

April 02 2014

I do not see that many posters 'from the east' on here and perhaps that in itself tells us something about the current western obsession with needing to know everything about an incident immediately , something we have been conditioned to expect by 'the media'. So after so many posts, some fascinating some bizarre I thought a few points of reflection about the overall incident might be an idea to bring a bit of perspective back, albeit from a personal point of view
I have visited Malaysia and worked with companies there .It is a complicated place politically and to western eyes there are a number of wrongs, it is said to be corrupt, but then who defines corruption and its political complexity is a reaction to the country's history and diversity. But their streets are pretty safe and not populated by druggies and 'gangstas' and their country pretty stable despite a potentially fairly inflammatory mix of races and religions. They don’t leave their elderly to starvation and mistreatment in state hospitals nor do their financial communities lie and cheat and steal money from governments and populace on a scale big enough to trigger global recession
Equally despite past troubles the ASEAN nations plus China and a few others get on quite well and certainly quite practically, as has been pointed out they do not have any reason to send Mach 2 interceptors after anyone with a radio failure.
All would agree that this is an unprecedented event and perhaps the US or Uk would have handled the media side more professionally but at the end of the day we would still know nothing more would we-making it quite clear that the media are not at all as important as they like to think they are .
Malaysia's preparedness for such an event, bizarre as it is, is probably no worse than any other country which has not had to deal with what could be 'an internal problem'. The US, for all their defence spending could not easily see rogue traffic over the domestic US pre 9/11 and worse still upheld the ludicrous idea that domestic passengers were subject to far less security than those on international flights.
As to the Malay Govt covering things up , well that's a hell of a risk to take for a small Asian country if the information you are hiding impacts China more than any other country, even their own.
Diego Garcia keeps popping up to, I am pretty sure if MH370 headed their the US Military would know about it, after he USS Vincennes tragedy though I think they would have been hugely reluctant to down another airliners , especially one from a friendly Muslim country. They would have been aware of its approach and identity for some time I am sure, and what real damage could it cause anyway, not least because it would be dark at DG at the time, Hitting a specific building would be close to impossible and a smoking hole on the airfield while tragic in terms of lives lost would have no material impact on the base itself. In any event who would be the target, DG is not American it is British.
So perhaps we should reflect a little before posting , especially if that is a critical and defamatory post, this is truly a mystery and hopefully will be solved on day , but for the countries involved and their experts and service personnel it is hard enough without the constant we know better attitudes displayed here and on so many TV news broadcasts.
Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost - Page 458 - PPRuNe Forums 2014-04-02

March 26 2014


Online discussion forum for pilots - Malaysian Airlines MH370

- technical details and on the lost plane, professional insights and comments on the ongoing search for the debris

January 19 2013

December 18 2012

October 29 2012

June 06 2011

May 05 2011


Cockpit voice recorder from Air France crash found | Telegraph . 2011-05-03

The cockpit voice recorder has been found from an Air France flight that plunged into the Atlantic Ocean almost two years ago. [...] After the plane's flight data recorder was pulled out on Sunday, both pieces critical to determining the cause of the June 2009 crash, which killed all 228 people on board, have now been found.[...]

April 21 2011

March 05 2011

March 01 2011


April 22 2010

Eyjafjallajökull: Entlasten die Flugausfälle das Klima?

Von Anike Peters | Greenpeace Blog |- Entlasten die Flugausfälle durch den Vulkanausbruchs auf Island das Klima? Diese Frage wurde Green- peace in den letzten Tagen häufig gestellt. Und meine Antwort darauf lautet ganz klar: Ja!

Nach Berechnungen von Atmosfair haben sämtliche Flugbewegungen von, nach und in Europa jeden Tag eine klimaerwärmende Wirkung, die etwa der von einer Million Tonnen Kohlendioxid entspricht. Das ist etwa die gleiche Menge an CO2, wie 40 Kohlekraftwerke in der Größe des von Vattenfall geplanten Klimakillers Moorburg am Tag ausstoßen. Und das sind immense, nicht zu vernachlässigende Mengen!

Deshalb wundere ich mich auch über Pressemeldungen in denen es heißt, dass die durch die Flugausfälle entstandene Einsparung an Treibhausgasemissionen zu vernachlässigen sei. Jedes Flugzeug das nicht startet, verbraucht kein Kerosin und erspart dem Klima damit einen ganzen Batzen an CO2-Emissionen. Das ist gut fürs Klima.

Die Kalkulation von Dietrich Brockhagen von Atmosfair beruht auf Daten, die im Rahmen einer EU-Studie im Jahr 2007 erhoben wurden. Diese Studie besagt, dass der direkte CO2-Ausstoß des europäischen Flugverkehrs etwa 220 Millionen Tonnen pro Jahr beträgt (Stand 2005). Beim Fliegen ausgestoßenes Kohlendioxid hat aber eine viel klimaschädlichere Wirkung als wenn es am Boden freigesetzt wird.

Das liegt daran, dass die Treibhausgase vom Flugzeug in einer besonders sensiblen Schicht der Erdatmosphäre ausgestoßen werden. Um also die wirklich wirksame klimaschädliche Wirkung des europäischen Flugverkehrs zu ermitteln, muss noch mit dem so genannten Radiation Forcing Index (RFI) multipliziert werden.

Laut Weltklimarat hat der RFI für Flugemissionen im Mittel einen Wert von 2,7 . Doch die Konservative Berechnung von Atmosfair hat sich darauf beschränkt zu sagen, dass die jährliche Klimabelastung durch den europaweiten Flugverkehr bei deutlich über 365 Millionen Tonnen liegt, was rund eine Million pro Tag bedeutet. Einfach Wahnsinn, was so ein Vulkanausbruch für Auswirkungen haben kann!

Jetzt kann man natürlich sagen: Halt, auch ein Vulkanausbruch belastet das Klima. Das stimmt. Vulkanische Aktivitäten sind jährlich für 110-250 Millionen Tonnen CO2 verantwortlich. Das ist jedoch weniger als alleine der europäische Luftverkehr verursacht. Die Auswirkungen des menschlichen Lebens auf der Erde sind hundertmal höher.

Für viele Menschen in unserer Gesellschaft ist es ganz alltäglich zu einem Geschäftstermin von Berlin nach Bonn zu fliegen. Auch der Konsum von Produkten, die am anderen Ende der Welt produziert werden und dann mit dem Flugzeug zu uns transportiert werden, ist für viele von uns normal: Babymango aus Kolumbien, Rosen aus Kenia und Fisch aus Asien.

Das Flugverbot hat nun viele Reisende zu einem Umstieg auf andere Verkehrsmittel wie die Bahn oder Busse gezwungen. Und vielleicht hat der eine oder andere Konsument hier in Hamburg jetzt Blumen und Gemüse aus dem Alten Land in Niedersachsen kaufen müssen, statt aus Afrika Eingeflogenes.

Vielleicht hat also der Vulkanausbruch nicht nur direkt dazu geführt, dass das Klima weniger geschädigt wurde, sondern auch indirekt ein bisschen “wachgerüttelt” und Bewusstsein für die Auswirkungen unseres täglichen Handelns geschaffen. Ich persönlich hoffe jedenfalls, dass dem ein oder anderen von uns durch die Flugausfälle die Absurdität mancher Alltäglichkeiten klar geworden ist und er/sie jetzt ein wenig klimabewusster handelt.

Quelle: – Greenpeace Blog – Dieser Beitrag steht unter einer CC-Lizenz. Bitte verlinke bei einer Nutzung immer auf den Originalartikel. | Twitter | Radio Utopie | Partnernetzwerk | Info

Lopez Suarez vom Womblog [Worte oder mehr]
Reposted fromZaphod Zaphod

April 19 2010


April 03 2010

Hochgefühl über dem Mittelmeer

Anzeige für TWA, 1947

(Gefunden im Flickr-Photostream von x-ray delta one)

Der Retro America-Pool auf Flickr:
retro america - view this group's most interesting photos on flickriver

Let’s Take A Plane:
x-ray delta one - view my '

Reposted fromglaserei glaserei

March 30 2010


March 19 2010

Plakate mit alten Luftfahrzeugen

“Vintage Aviation Posters” aus der Sammlung des Smithsonian Institute:






(Gefunden im Flickr-Photostream von amphalon)

Reposted fromglaserei glaserei

November 09 2009

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